I've heard all the theories.
Dwight Howard is the trade domino that has to fall first. Teams are hesitant to pull triggers because the new collective bargaining agreement will soon phase in a far more stringent luxury-tax scale. Teams also value salary-cap space and draft picks more than ever because of the looming penalties for big spending.
There are further justifications in circulation, if you want them, to account for the fact that (A) we haven't seen a trade in the NBA since the Memphis Grizzlies acquired Marreese Speights as a seriously underrated Zach Randolph stand-in on Jan. 4 and (B) lots of folks around the league are forecasting a modest week of business between now and Thursday's 3 p.m. trade deadline.
But I know what you really want, as always at this time of year, is actual trades. You don't want to hear that the 2012 trade deadline, which is the latest in NBA history thanks to the lockout, is harder than ever to manage because it falls right in the heart of March Madness and the height of NBA teams' college scouting season. Or that the lockout-shortened schedule and corresponding lack of practice time has made it hard for some teams to get a true read on where they stand for the playoffs and thus makes some skittish about making in-season changes.
The good news, if you're desperate for some trade action, is that such pessimism at the one-week-to-go stage is nothing new. We've heard similar caution expressed in past years before flurries of deals. Things change fast in this league, so I'd still plan on plenty of movement, knowing that GMs are attending conference tournaments all over the map and not just talking about Cal State Fullerton's unfathomable early exit at the Honda Center.
Presented here, then, is our latest and freshest assemblage of pertinent trade-deadline chatter as collected from conversations with various team officials, coaches, players, agents and other insiders plugged into the NBA grapevine:
What will the next six days look like for the Magic?
Numerous rival clubs are convinced that Magic officials, as they have for some time now, will continue to tell teams that they're prepared to keep Howard past the deadline and risk losing him for nothing if it means giving themselves three more months to convince him to change his mind about staying in central Florida.
Sources say that Orlando will also keep trying to make a move -- any move -- it thinks might get Dwight re-energized about his future in the shadows of Disney World again.
And what happens if the Magic get to Thursday morning without having imported any quality fresh blood for Howard's supporting cast?
"They might, at the last minute, give in," said one Western Conference observer. "But I don't think they'll even consider it before Thursday morning. And I still think at the end of the day that they'll call his bluff and keep him."
One exec from the East added: "I'd bet big money, if I were a betting man, that they don't trade him."
I would likewise be willing to (not so boldly) wager -- if I partook in such activities -- that the Magic have zero chance of completing the fantasy acquisition of a backcourt stud that can wow Howard. You've surely heard by now that the players they're chasing are Phoenix's Steve Nash and Golden State's Monta Ellis. Orlando, though, has nowhere close to the trade assets to acquire either one.
Hedo Turkoglu, sources say, is the first name Orlando has been throwing out in trade discussions over the past week or so. Yet it's one thing to try to foist Turkoglu on a team that's trading for Howard and quite another to try to move Turkoglu, or any other vet in Howard's supporting cast, when Dwight himself isn't part of the deal.
Said another front-office source of the $18 million that Turkoglu is guaranteed over the next two seasons after this one: "They'd have to be willing to throw in at least two [future] first-round picks to get someone to take him."
As risky as it sounds for the Magic to be taking such a monumental decision down to the very last minute, that's realistically not the case now that they've taken it this far.
Team officials have had so many Dwight-related discussions since the NBA reopened for basketball business in December that it wouldn't take as long as you might think to assemble an 11th-hour blockbuster.
"They've been at it for a while," one source close to the situation said. "They know all the options."
The vibe coming from most teams at this late stage, mind you, is that the three biggest names at the heart of trade speculation during the 2011-12 season -- Howard, Boston'sRajon Rondo and the Los Angeles Lakers' Pau Gasol -- aren't going anywhere after all the talk.
There's still time for the landscape to change, but the Celts and Lakers want a lot to part with Rondo or Gasol ... and Orlando just wants more time to sell Dwight on a new future. No matter what the risks are.
I'm sure you'd prefer actual active trade scenarios to dissect. Yet there is, if nothing else, an interesting trend to analyze.
That would be a growing group of teams apparently willing to ignore the well-worn maxim about trading a determined-to-leave superstar before he gets to free agency to prevent losing him for nothing.
Just look at the Magic, Nets and Suns. They all suddenly seem poised to turn down all trade inquiries this month for their respective stars and settle for mere salary-cap space as a consolation prize if Howard, Deron Williams or Steve Nash bolts without compensation in the summertime. The Dallas Mavericks, meanwhile, could find themselves confronted by the same fate if the cap-clearing decisions not to re-sign free agents from their championship squad like Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and Caron Butler don't bring them Williams or Howard in July ... or both in the Mavs' wildest dreams.
But that's how much teams out there dread absorbing long-term contracts these days, even more so than they used to, knowing that the league's new and far stricter luxury-tax scale will be implemented leading into the 2013-14 season. The growing consensus seems to be that it's better to start over from scratch after a doomsday departure in the NBA's brave new world as opposed to trying to make the best salvage trade you can find.
Something else teams treasure in the post-lockout NBA: first-round draft picks.
Teams love them more than ever thanks, again, to the new collective bargaining agreement and the new luxury-tax scale on the way. That's especially true in 2012 with a pool of draftees in June that draftniks will tell you is d-e-e-p.
It's that sort of thinking, sources said, that has prevented Indiana from doing a deal so far this month and isn't likely to change between now and next Thursday.
The Pacers are the only team in the league with the available salary-cap space to absorbChris Kaman's contract without sending a player back to New Orleans. They also could benefit hugely from the arrival of a sage like Nash and were an offseason contender to sign Portland's Jamal Crawford, who is already available again via trade. In all those cases, though, sources say Indy is reluctant in the extreme to surrender future first-round picks.
It might be different if the Pacers thought they had a good chance of re-signing Nash. But the payoff in the cases of Kaman and Crawford apparently isn't robust enough to get the Pacers (and other teams, for that matter) to part with a pick that has the potential to quickly transform into a quality contributor playing on a favorable rookie contract.
The challenges involved in getting teams to surrender first-rounders also explain why the Cavaliers haven't moved Ramon Sessions yet. Interest in Sessions from the Lakers has been an open secret for weeks, but Cleveland has yet to be offered the future first-rounder it wants in exchange for a point guard made expendable by the rapid rise of rookie Kyrie Irving. There is a sense, however, that the Lakers will be more inclined to meet Cleveland's asking price on deadline day if they haven't made a bigger deal by that point.
Cavs vet Antawn Jamison, meanwhile, is heating up just in time to generate some interest, but Jamison -- not unlike Kaman -- has an expiring contract with a big salary-cap number ($15.1 million) attached. And that makes it way harder to assemble a trade.
There are strong rumblings in New Orleans that Miami would be the clear favorite to sign Kaman as a free agent if the Hornets can't trade the 2010 All-Star and consent to buy him out before the March 23 deadline, which would keep Kaman eligible to play in the playoffs with another team this season.
Only one problem there for longtime Kaman fan Pat Riley.
Sources say that the league-owned Hornets remain adamantly against buying Kaman out if they can't trade the 7-footer and that Kaman has been warned not to expect a buyout if no trade is consummated.
Teams issue those threats all the time, of course, only to grant the buyout in the end. Remember, however, that we're talking about the league-owned Hornets here. The sense is that NBA commissioner David Stern, who will continue to serve as New Orleans' ultimate decision-maker until the team is sold, would have no interest in setting Kaman free to join the contender of his choosing. If he did, with Eric Gordon still sidelined after knee surgery,Al-Farouq Aminu would be the only player New Orleans received in the Chris Paul trade who's actually playing for the Hornets.
A trade scenario involving Kaman that is making the rounds in Dallas -- which would call for the Mavs to send Lamar Odom (plus at least one more small piece) to New Orleans in a deal for the burly center -- is feasible mathematically.
Just don't expect it to actually happen.
Sources say that Mavs owner Mark Cuban is adamant about wanting Odom to finish the season in Dallas despite Odom's well-chronicled struggles to adapt to post-Laker life. The Mavericks also don't have the spare first-round pick the Hornets would want for Kaman after using their 2012 first-rounder in the swap with the Lakers to get Odom.
Given the leaguewide skepticism about Howard, Rondo or Gasol getting dealt -- ditto for Nash and Josh Smith, too -- Minnesota's Michael Beasley might well rank as the player of prominence most likely to be moved at this stage.
And that's only if Beasley's status as the No. 2 overall pick from the 2008 draft can still enable us to get away with calling him prominent.
Yet there's another big man from the Class of '08 to keep an eye on: Washington's JaVale McGee.
The Wiz have been shopping Andray Blatche for months with no luck in hopes of truly changing the team culture around prized youngsters John Wall and Jan Vesely. But sources say the Wiz are now weighing whether it's time to finally surrender McGee -- who for all his potential still routinely finds himself at the heart of Washington's ongoing turbulence -- on the condition that his new team take Blatche as well.
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