Thunder at Heat: A close look at the clutch

With 3:03 left in the game and the Heat up 85-81 over the 76ers, LeBron James stepped up to the charity stripe for a pair of free throws. With Dwyane Wade sidelined, all of the eyes in AmericanAirlines Arena turned to LeBron to come up big in crunchtime. 

LeBron went 1-for-2 at the line. Not impressive. What followed, though, was impressive. From there, LeBron proceeded to hit two jumpers, flush an alley-oop and convert three more free throws in the closing minutes. With the game in balance, LeBron scored 12 points over the final three minutes of the game, matching the Philadelphia 76ers entire team's total over that span. The Heat went on to win 99-93. 

LeBron closed the door, something that every critic has yearned for him to do more consistently. It's no secret that LeBron's season hasn't memorable for his clutch performance. He might have the commanding lead in player efficiency rating, but he doesn't boast a catalog of game-winners that are featured daily on the morning highlight reels. 

That's not the case for his opponent on Wednesday -- Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Or at least that's what it seems. 

From the team perspective, the Thunder are 16-9 (.640) when games enter clutch time which is actually slightly worse, percentage-wise, than what the 14-7 (.667) Heat have done this season. There's no question that the Thunder have had far more dramatic wins this season, but when the games get close, the Heat have surprisingly seen better results from a record standpoint. 

The Thunder have been stellar this season with the game on the line and leading the way is Durant, who has been unbelievably successful in the shot-making department. The 23-year-old (remember, 23!) currently leads the NBA with 126 points in clutch situations (defined as the score within five points or less in the final five minutes). And Russell Westbrook? He ranks fourth in the league in clutch points (108), trailing Kobe Bryant (121) and Chris Paul (115). 

Where is LeBron on the list? And Wade? They're further down on the list. In fact, Durant has more points in those clutch situations (126) than LeBron and Wade combined (64 and 42 points, respectively). Westbrook, too. What's more surprising? Bosh, the power forward who's often labeled as soft and mentally-feebled, has scored 55 points in clutch situations, which is more than Wade, the Heat's so-called closer, this season. 

This is where we pause to mention the power of opportunity. The Thunder have played 122 minutes of clutch time this season and Durant and Westbrook have been on the floor for all 122 of those minutes. The Heat are a different story, having played 105 minutes in the clutch with LeBron playing only 85 of those minutes and Wade only 72 minutes. Still, that doesn't completely explain point disparity. 


Here are the numbers, including the top trios from both teams: 

Heat Big Three vs. Thunder Big Three in the clutch

Player	Minutes	Points	FG%	Pts/36	USG%	TS%	PER
Kevin Durant	122	126	40.2	37.2	42.5	54.8	34.3
Russell Westbrook	122	108	48.6	31.9	36.1	62.1	30.5
James Harden	122	18	30.0	5.3	6.5	51.5	9.6
LeBron James	85	64	41.7	27.1	35.3	51.9	29.5
Dwyane Wade	72	42	37.8	21.0	30.8	45.9	18.4
Chris Bosh	99	55	56.8	20.0	22.3	63.7	18.9

What jumps out? First, Durant still comes out on top when we slice the game this way. Boosted by a enormous usage rate (percentage of team's possessions used by a field goal attempt, free throw or turnover) of 42.5 percent, Durant trumps all in scoring and PER. Westbrook and Bosh have been monsters in shot efficiency when we look at their true shooting percentage which brings three-pointers and free throws into the picture. 

But Wade hasn't been sharp, which runs counter to what the conventional wisdom would suggest. Bosh might have played more, but when control for playing time, he has still been more efficient by PER and more accurate by true shooting. It should be noted that Bosh is set up for many of his buckets while Wade takes the burden of shot creation by himself. 

And Harden? That might be the most jaw-dropping figure of all. When was the last time we saw a wing player who averages about 20 points per game get completely ignored in crunch time? Sure, he brings more to the table than scoring, but a player of Harden's scoring talent shouldn't have a usage rate that rivals Joel Anthony. 

Let's take the next step and look at what I'll call "super-clutch" time. How do these players look in a one-possession game in the final minute? 

Heat Big Three vs. Thunder Big Three in super-clutch

Player	Minutes	Points	FG%	Pts/36	USG%	TS%	PER
Kevin Durant	18	39	40.2	78.0	60.8	52.3	47.6
Russell Westbrook	18	18	28.6	36.0	27.9	66.2	26.1
James Harden	18	0	0.0	0.0	1.4	0.0	3.0
LeBron James	14	14	37.5	36.0	36.3	54.5	28.0
Dwyane Wade	13	18	66.7	49.8	39.6	77.3	50.8
Chris Bosh	16	10	60.0	22.5	17.4	79.1	15.3

With a sample size this microscopic, we can't take much away from this other than to say Durant has been other-worldly when the lights at their brightest. I mean, 39 points in 18 minutes? That's the equivalent of scoring a whopping 78 points over a 36 minute period. That's simply incredible. 

And there's the Wade that the national audience remembers. In highly concentrated clutch moments, Wade has posted a higher usage rate than LeBron in this case and has flourished with that responsibility. Judging by their similar usage rates, there's no indication that one or the other is the "closer" in the final minute, but that Wade has found more success thus far. And don't forget about Bosh, he has come through when counted on. 

And lastly: poor, poor Harden. No shot attempts in 18 minutes. Maybe he'll get his big chance on Wednesday night. 

All in all, the clutch numbers tell us what has happened, but they hold little predictive power. No one expects Durant to sustain this superhuman level of performance. But no one should downplay what he has done either. Let's hope Wednesday night brings some more data points for entertainment's sak

Peyton Manning picks Denver Broncos; Tim Tebow status cloudy

 

Peyton Manning, the most prominent free agent in NFLhistory, finally made his big decision on Monday.

And the Denver Broncos won the prize of lofty new expectations.

Manning, who turns 36 on Saturday, instantly pushesTim Tebow out of a starting job and assumes his quest to win a second Super Bowl with the franchise hoping to repeat the glory it achieved more than 13 years ago withJohn Elway.

Manning informed the Broncos early Monday that they could begin negotiations with his agent, Tom Condon, according to ESPN, citing multiple people, and the Associated Press based on a person with knowledge of the discussions. Manning also phoned representatives of other finalists, the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers, with his decision.

Manning, Condon and Broncos decision-makers were unavailable Monday, but that did not prevent the news from traveling fast.

"I think it's a great place for him," Broncos defensive endRobert Ayers told reporters who had gathered outside the team's headquarters. "I don't think that he made a bad decision. I think he made a great decision. Hopefully, we can prove him right."

When the Indianapolis Colts released Manning after 14 seasons March 7, the Broncos were considered a "mystery" team in the equation. Yet Manning began his methodical tour, which included meetings with at least five teams, in Denver.

Manning also met with the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, and worked out for the Broncos, Titans and 49ers to show the teams where he stands after missing last season recovering from three neck surgeries.

According to the Denver Post, the Broncos were prepared to offer a deal similar to Manning's last pact with the Colts, a five-year, $90 million contract.

In Denver, he stays in the AFC and takes over a unit that had an 8-8 record in winning the AFC West crown last season behind Tebow.

"Basically, he can really take us to another level," Broncos running back Willis McGaheesaid during a radio interview. "We were young and I think those guys got the jitters out of them last year, even though we did go to the playoffs. It was a certain something that we were missing. We were missing that general to take charge in tough situations and I think he brings that to the table.

"And once those guys see him out there I think they're going to rise to the occasion and just have a breakout year."

Still, questions persist. Among them:

How good of a fit will Manning be with the Broncos' coaching staff?

If it's good enough for the savvy Manning, it is tough to argue that he won't mesh well with head coach John Fox, offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and the rest of the staff.

There may not be a more coachable player in the NFL than Manning, even as he heads into his 15th season. Tony Dungy recently recalled what Manning told him on his first day as Colts coach: "I want to be coached."

That said, Manning is used to essentially being a coach on the field, having called plays at the line of scrimmage for years. That mental edge is crucial to his greatness, and something the Broncos coaches will have to factor into their system.

It's also worth noting that Fox, who did a wonderful job last season figuring out how to get the best out of Tebow, has a history of adapting well and quickly preparing new and young players.

Was Elway a key factor?

If anybody could convince Manning that he can finish his career as a champion, it would be Elway — the Hall of Fame quarterback who won Super Bowls at ages 37 and 38 in his final two seasons.

Elway and Manning have maintained a strong relationship, and it probably wasn't difficult for Elway to sell Manning on the benefit of an aging quarterback playing for a balanced team.

As great as Elway was, he never won a championship until running back Terrell Daviscame to town. Now, with Manning positioned to write his final chapters, the support he can get from a rushing attack that ranked No. 1 in the league last year and a stout defense could make the quest for another ring a bit easier.

Is Tebow destined to wind up in Miami?

Of all the teams that were bypassed in the Manning sweepstakes, the Dolphins might be the biggest losers.

The Titans still have Matt Hasselbeck, arguably the best free agent acquisition last season, and a quarterback-of-the-future in Jake Locker. And the Cardinals have Kevin Kolb, who has the benefit of a full offseason after last year's lockout limited his ability to prepare.

Yet the Dolphins are visiting with Jacksonville Jaguars castoff David Garrard, which is quite the drop off from Manning. Maybe Miami can make a splash yet by trying to swing a trade that would pave the way for the magnetic Tebow to return to his home state.

Remember where Tebow's rise began last season? Miami. It was the Dolphins' first sellout of the season. Bring him back, and Tebow would surely sell tickets and appeal to Dolphins owner Stephen Ross' celebrity factor.

But Tebow will still need to continue to develop as a passer. Stay put, and there's an excellent tutor in Manning. Either way, so much for the contention expressed by Elway after the playoff loss that Tebow had earned the opportunity to enter training camp as the starter.

When can Manning get to work with his new teammates?

There used to be a time when a big free agent addition could sign his deal and promptly proceed to camp out at his new team's headquarters, immersing himself in the playbook. Not anymore.

With the new collective bargaining agreement, Manning can't begin having meetings with the Broncos' coaching staff until April 16, when the team's offseason program begins. Because he's rehabbing from an injury, he can't hit the field until May 2.

Instead, Manning will have to organize workouts away from the supervision of coaches for a few weeks. That probably won't be too difficult as players will want to make a statement about where the team is headed.

What are some of the challenges awaiting Manning?

After all those years of playing home games in domed stadiums, Manning will have to deal with the elements in Denver, where it has snowed as early as September.

Then again, Manning won his only Super Bowl in a steady rain in Miami. The thin air will undoubtedly increase the velocity of Manning's throws, which can't be a bad thing as questions surround his arm strength following the neck injury.

But the real issue might be who is on the other end of those passes. Denver's receiving corps is thin with very little in the way of proven talent beyond former first-round pickDemaryius Thomas. The leading receiver last season, Eric Decker, caught just 44 passes for 612 yards. And Eddie Royal just signed with San Diego.

Beyond the task of establishing his rhythm in a new environment with new teammates, an intriguing set of challenges rests with the schedule. By winning their division, the Broncos earned a "first-place" schedule, which means Manning will face some of his old friends with the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, in addition to a matchup with the New Orleans Saints. And an opponent that used to be such a pain to Manning — the San Diego Chargers, whom he is 4-5 against in his career — now comes twice a year in the AFC West.

Are the Broncos the team to beat in the AFC West?

A double-digit victory season with a healthy Manning would seem to be at the low end of expectations.

Manning guided the Colts to at least 10 victories in 11 seasons. Whether he can produce that type of consistency in a new environment is part of the challenge.

In any event, Chargers general manager A.J. Smith — no big fan of the Mannings after Eli snubbed his franchise coming out of college — and coach Norv Turner can't be thrilled about the signing. San Diego owned the division for a few years but could never get over the hump. Now comes Peyton.